ROBERT Mugabe’s health is on a downward trajectory and the battle to succeed him is intensifying, according to a senior Western diplomat.
The 86-year-old President of Zimbabwe was still in charge and able to fulfil a busy schedule but “there is no doubt that his downward trajectory has quickened and that’s caused the usual jostling for succession to speed up” the diplomat said.
The leading contenders are Emmerson Mnangagwa, the Defence Minister, and Solomon Mujuru, a former army chief whose wife, Joyce, is vice-president.
Both are hardline members of Mr Mugabe’s Zanu (PF) party and have strong ties to Zimbabwe’s unreformed security heirarchy which opposes the two-year-old power-sharing arrangement with Morgan Tsvangirai’s opposition party, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
“If Mugabe passes on, the MDC’s reformist boat will be bobbing on some very strong tides,” the diplomat said. He said that it was difficult to say if the likely successors would abandon the unity government but noted that they would infuriate southern Africa if they did.
Mr Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe since independence from Britain 31 years ago, intends to stand in the presidential election that is likely to be held next year but he has visibly slowed in recent months.
In April he fell asleep in four separate meetings with Zimbabwean ambassadors. At an African Unity summit in Uganda in August he had to be helped down steps. There are rumours that he has cancer. Sources in the coalition government said that he was alert during cabinet meetings and last week he sought to quell speculation by telling Reuters: “I’m still fit enough to fight sanctions and knock out (my opponents).”
In response to speculation that he was critically ill he said: “My time will come, but for now, no.”
The constitutional arrangements for replacing the president are confused but in reality the succession will be decided by “Zanu power politics”, the diplomat said.
Neither of the leading contenders will inspire much confidence in the West. Mr Mnangagwa, 63, and General Mujuru, 61, played leading roles in Zimbabwe’s liberation war and in the massacre of the Ndebele people known as Gukurahundi. They have been prominent members of Mr Mugabe’s regime and amassed huge wealth. Both inspire fear, not affection, among ordinary Zimbabweans.
Mr Mugabe has played the men off each other for years. Observers believe that Mr Mnangagwa probably has the edge because of his promotion to Defence Minister last year but the war of succession is certain to be brutal.
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