IT began with shock and awe 7 1/2 years ago when almost 250,000 US soldiers swarmed across the Kuwaiti border to topple Saddam Hussein.
Yesterday, the last combat troops were crossing the same border, leaving Iraq to an uncertain future. The US drawdown was meant to clear the way for a switch to diplomatic rather than military influence by Washington.
Yet when the US ambassador, Christopher Hill, departed last week, it was before his replacement had arrived. It was also before the Iraqi parliament had broken a five-month political impasse to form a new government after the elections in March.
Then, 12 million Iraqis voted in largely peaceful parliamentary elections. But there is still no new government. No party has enough votes to form one alone and no leader appears willing to agree to the compromises necessary for a coalition.
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki remains in office and desperately wants to stay.
His main rival for power is Ayad Allawi, whose party won 91 seats in the new 325-seat parliament, while Mr Maliki’s took 89. Together they could form the most stable and competent government Iraq has had. But personal ambition and mutual loathing mean they have barely spoken since the election.
Instead, smaller parties are playing kingmaker. The main power behind the throne is Moqtadr al-Sadr, a Shia cleric whose Sadrist movement has 39 seats in parliament. Without him, it’s difficult for anyone to form a government but Sadr hides in Iran, fearing arrest for murder.
An adviser to Mr Maliki said: “We are children of Saddam. All of us in power now were against him then, but he shaped the way we think about politics.”
Sunnis suspect the Shia-majority government of wanting absolute power like the Sunnis had under Saddam, and are loathe to compromise. Shias fear the return to power of Saddam’s Sunni allies who persecuted them for decades, and have tried to deprive them of influence.
Yesterday, senior Iraqi politicians involved in forming a new government said they were now weighing up the creation of a new federal position that could break the logjam.
Politicians from some of the biggest factions had warmed to the idea of creating an executive post they hope would better balance out power between the two sides, said people taking part in negotiations. They said the idea was floated during negotiations months ago, but that it went nowhere until US officials put forth a concrete proposal during Vice-President Joseph Biden’s visit to Baghdad last month.
Yesterday’s withdrawal will be followed within two weeks by the pullout of about 10,000 troops who had supported the fighters. After that, US forces in Iraq will be down to 50,000, with their task to train Iraqi forces for another 16 months to combat a resurgent al-Qa’ida. But by the end of next year, they will also be gone.
On an average day in Iraq now, about a dozen people are killed for political reasons, rather than hundreds, as was the case in 2007.
In the past few months, insurgents from al-Qa’ida have staged a comeback, making last month the bloodiest in two years.
There was a surge of attacks over the weekend, with nine people killed in bombings and shootings, including five police who were shot dead in Baghdad. The attackers set fire to the bodies of two of the officers.
Corruption and sectarian violence are also holding back the country’s economy.
Iraq has the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves but, because of outdated infrastructure and constant insecurity, it is only the 11th-largest producer. The previous government signed deals that it hoped could swell production to 12 million barrels per day in six years from about 2.5 million at present.
A growing number of Iraqis, including in the military, said they would like the Americans to stay longer, both to fight terrorists and to protect Iraq’s external borders. “America must be patient, because al-Qa’ida certainly is,” said Major Ahmed al-Obeidi.
The good news is that Iraqis underestimate the strength of their security forces. Police and soldiers may be ill-equipped but they have received up to seven years of US technical training. The government has about one million of them, while al-Qa’ida is down to a few hundred.
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