THE war in Afghanistan will be tougher and longer than expected despite a string of successes against al-Qa’ida, the chief of the CIA has warned.
After a week in which US President Barack Obama sacked his top Afghan war commander and troop deaths soared to a new high since the 2001 invasion, US spy chief Leon Panetta conceded there were “serious problems”.
“We’re dealing with a tribal society. We’re dealing with a country that has problems with governance, problems with corruption, problems with narcotics trafficking, problems with a Taliban insurgency,” Mr Panetta told ABC in the US.
Emboldened perhaps by divisions in the US war effort exposed by the sacking of Afghan commander General Stanley McChrystal, Taliban attacks are on the rise – a fact Mr Panetta did not attempt to hide.
“I think the Taliban obviously is engaged in greater violence right now. They’re doing more on IEDs (improvised explosive devices). They’re going after our troops. There’s no question about that.
“We are making progress. It’s harder, it’s slower than I think anyone anticipated.”
But Mr Panetta, installed by Obama last year to head the CIA, stressed the President had made it clear that going after al-Qa’ida was the “fundamental purpose” of the military mission in Afghanistan.
He was eager to point to the good news in the al-Qa’ida leadership now apparently in a weaker state than ever before, with as few as 50 members of the terror group left in Afghanistan while US forces worked hard to “flush out” Osama bin Laden.
“We’ve got to disrupt and dismantle al-Qa’ida and their militant allies so they never attack this country again,” Mr Panetta said.
“I think at most, we’re looking at maybe 50 to 100 (al-Qa’ida members), maybe less” in Afghanistan, he said, while admitting most were in Pakistan’s lawless tribal areas that lie along the border with Afghanistan.
Mr Obama, speaking in Toronto at the conclusion of the G20 summit of leading economies also talked about a “weakened” al-Qa’ida.
“It is true that al-Qa’ida right now is in Pakistan and you’ll often hear, why are we in Afghanistan when the terrorists are in Pakistan,” he said.
“Well, al-Qa’ida is pinned down and has been weakened in part because they don’t have the run of the territory. We would be less secure if you return to a situation that existed prior to 9/11 in which… a government was friendly and willing to house their operations.”
Mr Panetta said the pressure was beginning to tell on bin Laden and al-Qa’ida number two Ayman al-Zawahiri.
US-led operations have brought the al-Qa’ida leadership to its “weakest point since 9/11 and their escape from Afghanistan into Pakistan,” he said.
“If we keep that pressure on, we think ultimately we can flush out bin Laden and Zawahiri and get after them.”
Although hard data on the world’s most-wanted fugitive has been slight since the 2001 attacks on the United States, at least half of al-Qa’ida’s leaders have now been captured or killed, according to Mr Panetta.
“We continue to disrupt them. We continue to impact on their command and control. We continue to impact on their ability to plan attacks in this country,” he added, noting last month’s killing of al-Qa’ida number three Mustafa Abu al-Yazid.
Bin Laden remains “in very deep hiding” in a tribal area in Pakistan surrounded by tremendous security, a terrain the head of the CIA dubbed “the most difficult in the world”.
Mr Panetta insisted Mr Obama’s surge strategy – to bring to 150,000 the number of international troops on the ground by the end of August – is the right one, and said the Afghans needed to step up.
“I think the fundamental key, the key to success or failure is whether the Afghans accept responsibility, are able to deploy an effective army and police force to maintain stability,” he added.
“If they can do that, then I think we’re going to be able to achieve the kind of progress and the kind of stability that the president is after.”
The CIA is also hunting radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaqi, a US-born Yemeni who recently urged all Muslims serving in the US military to kill their comrades and who has been linked to several previous attacks.
“Awlaqi is a terrorist and yes, he’s a US citizen, but he is first and foremost a terrorist and we’re going to treat him like a terrorist,” Mr Panetta said.
“We don’t have an assassination list, but I can tell you this. We have a terrorist list and he’s on it.”
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